Analysis: China wary of Japan after Abe’s big election win | Asian Correspondent

Analysis: China wary of Japan after Abe’s big election win | Asian Correspondent
Michele Penna, Jul 25, 2013

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe triumphed in the election for the upper house earlier this week, with the Liberal Democrats obtaining 65 of the 121 seats up for grabs. Together with their smallerA Buddhist partner, they can now muster a majority in Parliament, which counts 242 seats. The Liberal Democratic Party must be rejoicing. But what does China – up to now rather at odds with the Japan’s new administration – think of it?

The Global Times, a traditionally nationalistic outlet, does not have much optimism to share. “Abe’s toughness against China will be further fuelled… It’s hard to ease the Sino-Japan relationship at large,” reads an article published on June 23. The paper dismisses Mr Abe’s declaration that the bilateral relationship between Beijing and Tokyo is one of the most important diplomatic connections to both sides as a cliché and foresees that China “shouldn’t expect any détente in the bilateral relationship during his term.”

Others, too, highlighted that a stronger administration in Japan could mean a tougher position on the international stage, much to the dismay of the Chinese government. China Daily wrote that “Abe is moving toward security policy changes that mark a big shift in a country that has prided itself on pacifist ideals even as it built up a military bigger than Britain’s. Among those changes are an expected reinterpretation of the constitution… Another is a review of defense policies that includes a consideration of acquiring the capability to attack enemy bases when an attack is imminent and no other options exist, and creation of a Marines division to protect remote islands such as those at the core of a heated territorial row with China.”

Opinions on Weibo, the Chinese Twitter, were not as many as one might expect, but those who took the time to comment were clear-cut in their thoughts. “War maniac! He should get a lesson!” wrote one. “The dog is about to come out and bite!” warned another. Taking a more balanced position, a netizen gave experts some food for thought in the debate on Asian nationalism: “the path Japan has taken looks more and more like that of Germany in 1931, what will happen next will be the legitimization of the army and its expansion. They will engage in provocations and move to oversea areas. The U.S. is like Chamberlain, supporting Japan in order to deal with China and nevertheless will become a victim. We must be aware of this trend.”

(READ MORE: New China coast guard ships seen in disputed area)

Mr Abe, the grandson of Nobusuke Kishi, prime minister of Japan from 1957 to 1960 and former member of the Tojo Cabinet during the Second World War, is outspoken about his plans to revive Japan’s role in international affairs. He does not shy away from nationalism: in the past, he said he was looking forward to replacing the 1995 apology offered by Tokyo to Second World War’s victims and government members have criticized the way in which history is taught in Japanese schools for a lack of patriotism.

Last Wednesday, in a show of patriotism right before the election, Mr Abe visited a vessel on Ishigaki, an island close to the disputed Diaoyu/Senkaku group. He reportedly told the crew that “Japan faces a grim security environment because Chinese vessels are frequently sailing to areas close to our waters, and there are consistent provocations targeted at us… I will continue to take charge and defend our territory, territorial waters and territorial airspace.”

The most controversial move envisaged by Japan’s new leader is the modification of Japan’s pacifist Constitution, which everybody believes would cause anger among Beijing authorities. In June, the Prime Minister told the public he would raise the issue after the election. The chief target seems to be Article 9, according to which “Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes,” vowing that “land, sea, and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained. The right of belligerency of the state will not be recognized.” To be sure, Japan has an army, and a sophisticated one, too, but Tokyo cannot use it like other nations do.

While constitutional changes could be a major issue in the future, a short term irritant could be a visit to the notorious Yasukuni Shrine, where Japanese leaders convicted as war criminals are honored along thousands soldiers who died in the Second World War. As the anniversary of Japan’s defeat in the conflict on August 15 nears, eyes are fixed on the Prime Minister.