Desperately Seeking Success in the Thai Deep South | Asia Sentinel

Desperately Seeking Success in the Thai Deep South | Asia Sentinel
Murray Hunter, 02 March 2013

Malaysia to host negotiations with Thailand's Islamic insurgents

The surprise of an agreement signed between the Thai government and Malaysia during Premier Yingluck Shinawatra's visit to Kuala Lumpur for negotiations with one of the major insurgent groups, the Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN), should actually not be a surprise. It is also questionable whether there is anything to the agreement.

Malaysia is heading into what could be called a watershed election. Premier Najib Tun Razak's personal popularity rating has fallen although it is still well into positive territory, there have been a number of campaigning mishaps for him of late, and there is an embarrassing military stand-off in Sabah with a group loyal to the Sulu Sultan, where the Philippine President Benigno S. Aquino is the one taking initiatives.

In this environment, both the Thai and Malaysian governments need a breakthrough. Of late, the insurgents have undertaken many embarrassing ploys like displaying Malaysian flags on Aug. 31, Malaysia?s Independence day. In addition, troops and other security forces are all tied trying to protect major towns like Hat Yai and Chana from attacks, and Yingluck has her brother's legacy of poor handling of the insurgency hanging over her. Najib badly needs some form of diplomatic coup to bolster his credentials, particularly with the rural Malays in Kelantan who are not unsympathetic to the insurgent cause, and the general population of Malaysia with the oncoming election.

The memorandum was signed in Malaysia?s administrative capital of Putrajaya by Lieutenant-General Panradom Pattanathabur, Secretary general of Thailand's National Security Council, and Utaz Hassan Taib, who was identified as the chief of the BRN liaison office in Malaysia. The document, signed on Feb. 28, has been heralded by all as an historical agreement and has been reported widely in both the mainstream Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur Press, although it's interesting Malaysia's online press hardly mentioned it.

The BRN, formed in 1963, is one of up to 20 different insurgency groups in Thailand?s deep south. Although it may one of the largest groups, it is yet to be seen if any others may come on board, or even take a hostile view, believing that they have been left out and should be the group that the government negotiates. With jealousies between some of these groups, this is a minor risk that the Thai government has taken.

As it has actually not been spelt out by the various insurgency groups what demands and aspirations they have, this process will at least put these points on the table for examination. In this sense the memorandum is a potential breakthrough because it may establish the gambit of positions both sides will talk from. Ironically through this insurgency, very few concrete demands or aspirations have actually been aired, although the various groups harbor ideals and aspirations alone a wide continuum.

Malaysia?s will be interesting. With an election nearing, the federal government wants peace along the border and there are actually great trade advantages to a peaceful south through the IMT-GT. The Malaysian military and police are generally cooperative with the Thai authorities over border security issues and have established good relationships. However some insurgents are also Malaysian citizens, or at least have very close Malaysian relatives, and to some degree are integrated within the "pondok communities" within Kelantan. Perhaps Malaysia's prime role will be just acting as a chairman to these meetings to maintain negotiations, rather than acting more proactively in suggesting solutions. The true value of the Malaysian role will therefore be just to hold the process together, which may not be an easy task, given the emotional issues involved.

Any success will depend upon there not being any hidden agendas between the 2+1 parties. With the complexities of Thai politics, the military, the various insurgency groups and their splinters, and Malaysian politics, particularly related to the constituency of Kelantan, this could be a tall order. However there is also the hope that all sides are tired and through this process, there can be reaching out to other insurgency groups.

Much of this will personally depend upon the skills and attitude taken by Panradom Pattanathabur and the reception he gets from members of the BRN delegation. The other question here is over who Hassan Taib actually represents within the BRN, which has a number of splinter groups. Even if Hassan is speaking for a wide series of groups, every point of negotiations would have to be discussed in community shariah in every province to obtain any consensus, which could be daunting.

One must also remember this is not the first time peace talks have been attempted with many different moderators including former Malaysian Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed in the Langkawi talks a few years ago, and later with former Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. Both went nowhere.

One aspect that has not been tackled by both governments in this agreement is the role drug traffickers, bandits, gangsters, and other criminal elements are playing in this insurgency problem. It is in their interest to have turmoil in the deep south so they can carry out their trade. These groups are part of the problem and they need to be dealt with in any process for it to be a success.

The first meeting is scheduled to be held in Malaysia within the next two weeks, and every fortnight afterwards. It would be surprising if much information about these talks actually leaks out. However the meeting itself is something positive and who actually turns up to these meetings from the insurgents side will be very telling of eventual success of this process.

What is sure, while the violence will not stop immediately, the immediate level of violence may indicate how seriously various groups look at this upcoming process of negotiation. The Yingluck government has given some authority to the military to negotiate, who may take a more hardline than the government would. However from the Thai point of view some process is going on which is better than no process. The agreement to the Malaysian Government as the moderator is a redeeming event in foreign policy for the Najib Government. The BN will be hoping that this may provide some positive mileage among the rural Malays of Kelantan, who they need to win over if any positive electoral.

Meanwhile the people of the deep south will continue to go about their daily lives with extreme caution.

(Murray Hunter is an Australian academic teaching at a Malaysian university and a frequent contributor to Asia Sentinel.)

1Malaysia Is A Philosophy - Najib Tun Razak said

1Malaysia Is A Philosophy - Najib Tun Razak said
Malaysian Mirror, 19 December 2011

SERI KEMBANGAN -- Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak said that 1Malaysia is a philosophy and not a mere slogan, stressing that it can transform the mindset of Malaysians towards building the country into a highly-developed nation by 2020.

He said that if Malaysians understood what was needed to hold the country together, they would realise the importance of giving continuous support to the government which had long and proven experience in building the nation.

"I believe we can achieve prosperity and become a strong country if all Malaysians embrace the notion of the 1Malaysia philosophy," he said in his speech at the ground-breaking ceremony of the Federation of Chinese Association Malaysia's (Hua Zong) new building, here on Sunday.

The RM55 million project, expected to be completed in two years, comprises a Chinese museum, library, reading room, information and research rooms, meeting rooms, a conference hall and a multi-purpose banquet hall.

The prime minister also announced RM5 million in government contribution for the project, of which RM2.5 million will be made available next year and the balance in 2013.

The prime minister also said that the government had agreed in principles with Hua Zong's request that tax exemption benefits be extended to those who had donated funds the project.

Najib also said Malaysia was facing a long journey and that "to reach our next destination, we need to have long-term policies that can benefit people from all walks of life."

"We cannot have short-term policies; we cannot promise the sun, moon and the galaxy.

"It is the responsibility of the government to stay on course and to continue helping the people. As one nation, 1Malaysia, it gives us the strength to overcome future challenges," he said.

The prime minister said the government's long-term policies had been proven to be effective in helping Malaysia face the economic crises of 1997 and 2009.

"The journey has been very challenging and filled with obstacles but each time we face a major crisis, we manage to overcome it because we have confidence in the way the government tackles it.

"This is also due to the people supporting the policies of the government which have brought about stability and prosperity in the country," he said.

(Bernama)

"I Back Najib, He Is A Better Man" - Dr M

Saturday, 03 December 2011 06:45

NEW DELHI -- Former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad gave a terse political tip for Malaysian voters.

Crediting Najib Tun Razak for "correcting wrongs" in the political system, he said the prime minister should be given a chance to lead the country.

"He is gaining popularity, he is correcting wrongs did (committed) by my successor.

"I back Najib, he is a better man, he deserves to be given a chance," Dr Mahathir said at a media conference in Delhi on Friday.

The 86-year-old statesman is here to attend the annual Hindustan Times Leadership Summit where he presented a keynote address.

In his speech, he warned global leaders to note key changes taking place - failure of central planned economy, influence of social media and the speed of people crossing borders.

"These are radical changes happening in the 21st century. All these will impact whatever we do, political, economic, social or financial areas.

"If we are not willing to admit these changes, we will not be able to attend to these challenges," noted Dr Mahathir.

In his keynote address themed 'The Challenges of Changes in the 21st Century', he said democracy was not a bad system, but not a panacea for all political shortcomings.

"Democracy is the best form of government, it is not the easiest to govern because people do not understand the limitations of democracy," he added.

(Bernama)

"I Back Najib, He Is A Better Man" - Dr M